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Posted: 7:23 p.m. Monday, Nov. 5, 2012
By Jamie Dupree
With so many states entrenched in Blue and Red America, there aren't that many variables for this year's Presidential race, except in the swing states. With the voters ready to deliver their verdict, let's look at how President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney can win this election.
The polls continue to give the President a slight edge in a number of swing states - thus, he has more chances to get to a majority of Electoral Votes - 270 are needed to win.
If you take the basic assumption that each man will win certain states - we start with Mr. Obama at 201 Electoral Votes and Roney at 191.
In that scenario, the following states are up for grabs:
New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.
If Romney can win Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, then he stands at 248 Electoral Votes.
Romney can then get to a majority from that point two main ways:
OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA & MICHIGAN
* Win Ohio and any other state (even New Hampshire would do)
* Win Pennsylvania and any other state
* Win Michigan and either Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada or Colorado (NH wouldn't be enough)
WITHOUT OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA OR MICHIGAN
* Romney would have to win Wisconsin & Colorado, and then either New Hampshire, Iowa or Nevada.
Yes, there are other permutations, but the basic Romney path to victory involves winning either Ohio or Pennsylvania, since Michigan seems to be a state that will back the President.
As for President Obama, he can just about lock up the election by winning Florida, North Carolina or Virginia.
If the President wins Virginia, for example, then victories in Ohio, Pennsylvania and one other state will lock up his re-election.
A victory in Florida - paired with wins in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania would also end the night early.
So, as you take in the results on Election Night - think two states - Ohio and Pennsylvania.
They hold the key for Mitt Romney and President Obama.
And it's probably why Romney is making an Election Day stop in both of those states.
Jamie Dupree is the Radio News Director of the Washington Bureau of the Cox Media Group and writes the Washington Insider blog.
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