My blog focuses on plants weather and geology in and around the borderland. I've had a long standing love for plants, weather, and nature in general. Growing up in coastal southern California, although not tropical, was a Mediterranean climate with many subtropical plants. The location and climate influenced my likes for plants, weather and geology.

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Temperature Flip!

11/17

After starting the month of November on a warm note with above normal temperatures we will see cooler changes that will stick around for at least the next week. Just how warm did we start off this month? Everyday from November 1st through the 13th we had highs in the 70s! In fact in the first half of the month we had 4 days, the 4th, 5th, 6th and the 9th where temperatures were near 80 degrees! That means we were seeing temperatures some 8 to 10 degrees above average as we typically would be cooling down this time of year.

But this was going to change as a series of cold fronts were about to move through the borderland as a result of a pattern change. And Friday the 13th was to be our last November day with highs in the 70s. By the weekend temperatures were beginning to drop with highs in the upper 60s Saturday and mid 60s at the El Paso International Airport Sunday. For our Monday we will be even cooler. Our highs were only in the mid to upper 50s as cold air flowing in from the northeast will help to keep our temperatures down. And these high temperatures are some 20 degrees cooler than just a week ago! These cool days have also led to literally freezing nights with a Monday low of 30 degrees in Las Cruces, with El Paso staying just above the freezing mark with a low of 33. But by Tuesday morning that would change as the entire area would drop below the freezing mark with a low of 27 in Las Cruces, and El Paso dropping down to 29 degrees! Thus giving us the coldest temperatures so far this fall season!

Although still fall, typically November is a month of change in the borderland with average high temperatures around 70 at the beginning of the month to mid 60s by mid month, with averages highs dropping off to around 60 degrees by the end of the month! So keep those jackets handy as the colder mornings and cooler days of the season are just beginning!

November Hurricane?

11/11

Ida is a late season hurricane, but it believe it or not it technically still is hurricane season which begins June 1 and lasts all the way through November 30! Data is found by going back and examining previous hurricane seasons from years past. And this helps to forecast and figure out which parts of the hurricane season will have the potential of being more or less active. With that information it is found that hurricane season does see a climatological peak during the month of September, meaning that is the most active month.

But although September is the most active month, we can still see systems much later than that as we are dealing with hurricane Ida in the month of November. Hurricane Ida first started as a tropical depression on November 4th but grew and became a deadly storm. The storm temporarily did weaken by November 6th after crossing over Honduras. During that time the system brought very heavy rain to the neighboring country of El Salvador which indirectly lead to more than 120 people reported being killed there and more than 60 people still missing!

After emerging over open waters on November 7th, once again it strengthened to both a tropical storm, then a hurricane the same day! The next day Ida became a category 2 hurricane and headed toward the Gulf of Mexico. As of Monday November 9th it was a category one storm and heading for the Alabama coast. Luckily later Monday the system weakened once again to a tropical storm as it continued to head toward, then made landfall along the Alabama coast on Tuesday November 10th with heavy rains and winds gusts of 45 to 50 miles per hour. It is not common to see tropical systems affect the U.S. during the months of November or December, but as we have seen it’s certainly not impossible.

First freeze, when can we expect it and what does it mean?

11/04

The first freeze of the fall season usually signals the end of the growing season. That means deciduous trees will begin to lose their leaves. And other more tender potted plants, flowers and tropical plants can have their foliage burned by the freezing or below freezing temperatures and even be killed altogether depending how cold it gets.

A freeze warning is issued for an area for the first freeze of the season. When temperatures dip below freezing during the winter, warnings will not continue to be issued because by that point tender outdoor vegetation and farmers crops have already been killed off for the season by the cold. The exception to that are areas where citrus, avocados and other tropical crops are grown. In those areas freeze warnings may be issued every time there is a freeze as famers will have to protect their more tender trees from the cold.

Here in El Paso our average first freeze occurs on November 12th, with the last average freeze occurring March 19th. But as we know weather does not always follow averages! After a cold storm system moved through the area Wednesday, October 28, leaving behind a much colder air mass freeze warnings were then issued for both Thursday and Friday mornings as temperatures were expected to drop below 32 degrees. Las Cruces did briefly reach the freezing mark the morning of Thursday, October 29th and was even colder Friday morning with a low of 30 degrees! For El Paso, light overnight westerly breezes kept much of the city just above the freezing mark with our coldest morning so far being early Saturday, October 31st where the mercury officially dipped to 33 degrees at the airport which was just one degree above freezing. However, many outlying areas around El Paso did see temperatures at or slightly below freezing.

The earliest freeze on record for El Paso occurred in 1880 on October 16th! And although we didn’t get close to breaking the record for the earliest freeze, most areas did beat the average of November 12th for the first freeze when many areas saw freezing temperatures nearly two weeks earlier than usual!

Fall storm system with a winter punch!

10/29

After seeing high temperatures in the upper 70s on Tuesday, Wednesday was to be a day of big weather changes. The morning was to start out rather mild as we had a west southwesterly flow ahead of the cold storm system that was to blast through the borderland. In fact Midnight Wednesday morning we hit our high of 65 degrees, that’s right at midnight we hit our high! As we went through the rest of the day the temperatures would get colder and colder.

As the front approached from the west the temperature in Deming dropped 10 degrees in one hour, from 58 degrees at 6am to 48 degrees at 7am. The Front was on its way east, next in line was Las Cruces where there temperature went from 59 degrees at 7am, to 48 degrees by 8am with wind gusts over 30 miles per hour! And the temperatures kept falling, dipping into the 30s by 2 in the afternoon! Next in line was El Paso where the front finally moved through around 11am, sending the temperatures from the 60s down into the 40s by 2 in the afternoon, certainly an opposite day for temperatures across the borderland!

As the temperatures continued to fall through the evening hours the light rain showers changed over to a wintry mix of precipitation, including ice pellets and snow! Reports of rain mixed with snow flurries began to come in from El Paso around 5 pm. And as temperatures got even colder more reports of snow began to come in. From Las Cruces where reports of moderate snow began to come in, to Trans Mountain pass in the Franklyn mountains where reports were coming in of sticking snow on the road at the summit with a accumulating snow to about an inch above 4500 ft in the Franklyn Mountains. Officially at the El Paso International Airport there was .07 inches of precipitation yesterday, also recording a trace of snow.

With this system bringing in much colder temperatures it will also signal the end of the growing season with a freeze warning in effect through 10am for Dona Ana County including Las Cruces. Clouds kept the temperatures above freezing in El Paso so a freeze warning won’t be in effect until Friday morning when the clearing skies will allow temperatures area wide to dip to near of just below the freezing mark. This will bring an end to the growing season, so it’s time to bring inside or protect any tender or tropical plants you may have outside.

Big changes, cooler more fall like weather coming this week!

10/27

After last weeks and this past weekend’s mild temperatures with most days coming in with above normal temperatures Sunday through Sunday we will see bigger changes with a fall like week ahead. In fact we have only had three out of the last eight days with near or below average temperatures. With one of the warmest day being last Tuesday the 19th with a high coming in 9 degrees above average! Average temperatures this time of year are in the mid 70s.

But big changes are in store for us this week. In fact looking ahead through to the end of the week we could see below average temperatures everyday today through Saturday! Monday our high at the El Paso International Airport was 61 degrees, which was 13 degrees below average! And although we will see a slight warm up for our Tuesday, we will have another stronger and colder system moving in midweek. This mid week system could bring us high temperatures in the 50s for our Thursday, which would be nearly some 20 degrees below average!

In addition Wednesday and Thursdays stronger system will bring gusty winds, especially Wednesday and chances for showers as well. And this second system being colder will allow for chances of snow for the area Mountains Wednesday and Thursday! It should however just be cold scattered rain showers for El Paso and Las Cruces. But get those jackets out and possibly the gloves as well, because once the system moves through we could see morning lows temperatures in the mid to upper 30s by the end of the week! With some areas seeing the potential even colder, possibly freezing temperatures Friday and Saturday mornings mainly in outlying areas! Certainly this upcoming week will feel more like fall!

Tuesday Storms!

10/22

It started off like many other recent mornings we’ve had this month, mild and quiet. But that was about to change, in some areas very dramatically for our Tuesday. As early morning went into mid-morning a severe thunderstorm watch was issued to warn of the potential of severe weather during the afternoon and evening hours.

A storm system moved in from Arizona, moisture and temperatures in our area increased with a strong southerly flow coming up from Mexico. In the early afternoon as the Arizona system moved into New Mexico showers and thunderstorms began to develop. And as afternoon turned into evening our weather would begin to get even more active. Severe weather reports began just before 4 o’clock, followed by a severe thunderstorm warning for Dona Ana County for the potential of strong winds and hail. The strongest part of that storm passed between El Paso and Las Cruces mainly affecting west El Paso, Canutillo, Anthony and south Las Cruces with gusty winds, heavy rain and some small hail.

Another round of storms formed to our southwest around 7 o’clock in the evening bringing more rainfall, wind and lots of lightning once again from areas of West El Paso, northwestward through much of Las Cruces prompting a flood advisory for areas south of Las Cruces as this area was just hit by the earlier storm. Showers and thunderstorms later pushed through the rest of El Paso bringing with them strong winds. In fact, our Dick Poe Dealership weathernet site reported a wind gust of 52 miles per hour with an incredible wind gust of 70 miles per hour at the El Paso International Airport!

Many of the storms did contain heavy rainfall, as well, with our Doppler estimating a half an inch of rain and up to an inch of rain in and around Anthony and parts of south Las Cruces. But lesser amounts of rainfall fell in much of Northeast and East El Paso with our Doppler only estimating around a tenth of an inch of rain for those areas. Luckily the quick movement of some of the stronger storms limited the threat for widespread flooding.

El Nino or La Nina this winter?

10/14

If we have an El Nino winter it means more clouds, moisture and precipitation. If we experience a La Nina winter we would see a winter much like we had last winter, when we saw lots of blue skies and warmer temperatures. El Nino also brings us more opportunities for snow here in the borderland. The reasons behind this are, because of our elevation we still have our cold nights where temperatures drop to near or below freezing, in addition we have cold fronts that affect the area. And if you bring added moisture to the area it increases our chances for an occasional snow storm, especially during El Nino winters.

El Nino begins when water temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean begin to warm to above average levels. This can bring below average precipitation from the pacific northwest of the United States stretching into the northern plains. But we see increased precipitation for the southern tier of states, from southern California through Texas and further east including other gulf coast states. One reason is what is called the subtropical jet stream which becomes more active during an El Nino winter, in California known as the “pineapple express.” Storm systems tap into this moisture coming all the way from the tropics. And this increased moisture can make storm systems more intense and lead to heavier amounts of rainfall/snowfall as the storm systems move through.

This year we are seeing signs that this could be an El Nino winter, meaning a wetter winter possible for the borderland. Extended models are showing above normal precipitation for the borderland beginning in December and lasting through April. With temperatures that will be at or slightly below normal through the winter and above normal temperatures beginning in March. We will be watching to see if an El Nino does in fact materialize, and keep an eye on the possibility for better winter chances for rain and yes possibly snow as well!

Tropical system brings rain to the borderland!

10/07

Tropical storm Olaf which was originally off of Baja California coast made a turn toward the northeast and headed toward the borderland. This system weakened, as they often do, as it crossed the Baja peninsula and made landfall on the Mexican mainland. By late Friday evening clouds from this system were already becoming visible to our south and southwest. And rainfall was not far behind.

The rainfall which began to move into our area late Friday night and Saturday morning for the most part was on the light side; however, a more moderate band of continuing rainfall did set up around 10:00 a.m. stretching from northern Luna County into northern Dona Ana County, affecting the cities of Deming and Las Cruces. With Doppler radar estimates of a half an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall in those areas! The good news was flooding was not an issue as the rain was rather steady and over about a 3 hour period.

For the El Paso area we had increased cloud cover which helped keep our temperatures some 6 to 8 degrees below average and scattered off and on mainly light showers. But with all of the clouds and off and on light showers we only received .02 inches of rainfall for our Saturday. On Sunday we were still seeing some of the moisture from the remnants of what was tropical storm Olaf with increased clouds and scattered showers. On Sunday we received officially .07 inches at the airport, with much of the heavier activity this time remaining to our south Sunday. And although we didn’t receive much rainfall from the remnants of Olaf in El Paso itself, we did see the cloud cover and cooler temperatures giving us change from our routinely sunny desert skies!

2009 Monsoon Season Wrap Up!

09/30

After a fairly strong cold front ironically landing on the first day of fall it looks like the monsoonal flow and moisture has been swept clean from the borderland and now with a drier more westerly flow taking hold, keeping the moisture out, it looks like we have finished up monsoon season for 2009.

So, how did we do rainfall-wise for monsoon 2009, June through September? It was an interesting season to say the least, with a wetter beginning, drier hot middle and a wetter end with some severe weather as well.

At first it looked like things were off to a good start rainfall wise as we went through the second half of June, with 5 days seeing measurable rainfall. One of the biggest was a thunderstorm on June 28th dumping 1.85 inches of rain! Helping to give us a monthly total of almost two and a quarter inches of rain and was actually 1.37 inches above normal for the month of June! But by July things were going to change as we were in for a drier and hotter month. In June we had only one 100 degree day, but in July we had 16 days of 100 degrees or higher! For rainfall we ended up with a July total just under half an inch, this being a full inch less than the monthly average. And July is typically a cooler and wetter month than June. Unfortunately, August was to take a similar hotter and drier trend. Although we didn’t have as many 100 degree days as July, only coming in with 4, we still had below average precipitation missing our average rainfall for the month by over an inch. But for the month of September, we were going to make up some ground in the rainfall department and have some severe weather as well. With moisture in place and more moving in behind a front from the east along with disturbances moving through from the northwest, it was to be the set up for severe weather with some of the worst thunderstorms occurring September 16th. With a strong storm affecting much of the east side with flooding rains and quarter to half dollar size hail! The damage was unfortunate but with increased thunderstorm activity we did do some catching up in the rainfall department. With the month of September receiving 2.50 inches of rain which was just over an inch above the monthly average!

So with June coming in with above average rainfall, July and August with below, then September again coming in with above average rainfall just how did we fair overall? Taking the average monthly totals for June through September, we would typically see around 5.72 inches for those four months. This year we totaled 5.82 inches June through September, slightly above normal! But because of the interruption of a typical monsoon pattern with July and August being so dry, it can be argued that we never did really set up a consistent monsoonal flow this summer making rainfall more erratic. Compare that to last year’s wetter monsoon season with a June through September total of 8.95 inches, almost our yearly average in just those four months! Many years monsoon season will last through early or occasionally even mid October, but because it appears it has already “shut down” for the year, precipitation for the months of June through September were used for comparison.

From Severe Storms to our first fall cold front!

09/21

A weak storm system moving through the atmosphere caused a cluster of thunderstorms to form then intensify in the Las Cruces area causing a game delay between UTEP and NMSU because of lots of lightning and heavy rain. But the storms were to get even stronger. The cluster then merged into a line and the oranges and reds indicating rainfall on our Doppler radar increased to reds and purples, indicating heavy rain and hail. With the storms now better organized they headed off toward the southeast to El Paso. With nearly constant cloud to cloud and cloud to ground lightning the storms slammed into El Paso around 8:30 p.m. First affecting areas of northeast and west El Paso, then continuing southeast through east El Paso and on into the lower valley.

After all was said and done there were reports in northeast El Paso of winds gusting up to 62 miles per hour. Along with the winds the burst of heavy rain brought isolated reports of flooding along with a rockslide on the east bound lanes of Loop 375 and Trans Mountain. Most areas received around ¾ of an inch to an inch of rain in the El Paso area, with some of the higher reports around an inch and a half. The highest recorded was a total of 1.93 inches in 45 minutes!

Now comes the change, by the calendar, fall begins tomorrow but just in time for the start of fall a strong fall-like cold front will blast though the area. As of Monday morning the cold front is located in the plains of eastern Colorado and is blasting south heading toward the Texas panhandle and the high plains of eastern New Mexico. The front will arrive in the borderland tonight bringing gusty winds and much cooler temperatures for our Tuesday. In fact we could see temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler than from Monday highs! And along with the cooler temperatures will come winds from the east and northeast gusting between 20 to 30 miles per hour. With west facing mountain slopes possibly seeing gusts to 45 miles per hour or higher! With that kind of cool off you may need your sweater or sweatshirt not just for Tuesday morning but for Wednesday morning as well!

More Severe Weather!

09/17

With a cool front yesterday bringing in increased moisture in from the east and an upper level low pressure system approaching from the northwest we had the set up for severe storms. And severe storms we got! One of the first severe storms formed around 3:30pm about 10 miles east of Chaparral, moved southeast, staying east of Montana Vista but producing hail up to an inch in diameter as it moved through the Hueco Tanks.

The second more damaging storm formed a little later just before 4 pm inside loop 375 about 6 miles north of the El Paso International Airport. Unfortunately this second storm was not to only to be severe, but travel over populated areas as well. After forming near the El Paso International Airport the storm moved south south east on a 30 mile long track! That track taking the storm through east El Paso, Horizon City then continued on its damaging track though Socorro along Interstate 10 all the way down through Fabens before finally dying out.

This storm moved over populated areas and produced lots of hail. In fact, we had a report of 1 inch hail at the airport where the storm originated. As it intensified we then had reports of 1.5 inch size hail near Montwood and Yaroborough. And the storm continued to intensify! At Loop 375 and Alameda we had reports of even larger golf ball size hail, with similar reports of golf ball size hail as the storm unfortunately moved down Interstate 10. Also with this same storm, there were reports of arroyos running full with the heavy rainfall that came along with the hail. This storm, because of its path, ended up causing lots of damage, from damage to cars as well as homes!

And we are not out of the woods yet as the conditions today remain similar. We will see that threat for stronger storms and the possibility of hail. But there is even a larger threat for heavy rainfall as the ground in many areas is saturated and we have a flash flood watch in effect through Friday evening.

End of week Rain and Severe Weather!

09/15

With the first half of September coming in with as much rainfall as the entire month of August which had .59 inches of rain, it looks like we may be seeing somewhat of a wetter pattern this month. But with the rainfall on Friday some areas saw some rather strong storms, two areas in particular were hit the hardest. One area was the Westside of El Paso. A storm formed around I-10 and Redd Road and expanded in coverage, giving much of west El Paso rain and even hail! Reports of hail came in from the intersection of Mesa and Mesa Hills! Larger nickel size hail was reported around the Shadow Mountain and Caprock area of the Westside, with hail lasting up to 12 minutes near Putnam Elementary school also on the Westside. At the same time another severe thunderstorm in Las Cruces that moved into the East Mesa side of town dropped hail up to 1 inch in diameter!

But hail was only one aspect of these severe thunderstorms that popped up late Friday afternoon, the other was heavy rainfall. One of the storms that produced some of the heaviest rainfall was in the Horizon City area, extending down through northern parts of Socorro, causing an arroyo to overflow closing parts of I-10 at Eastlake, in addition to that, there were also reports of water covering the roadway at Loop 375 and Del Valle! Our KFOX Early Warning Storm Track Doppler estimated rainfall totals of up to an inch and a half for the Horizon City and Socorro storm. With radar estimating over an inch of rain here on the Westside of town! With our KFOX TV Rooftop weathernet site picking up .88 inches of rain Friday afternoon!

It looks like we will have a chance to dry out at least at the beginning of the week. But once again shower and storm chances may be increasing by the end of this week, hopefully bringing much needed rains to places that missed out last week!

Sunday night Storm!

09/09

A few light showers approached the El Paso area from the west around 9 pm Sunday night. As they moved over the city the showers intensified and conglomerated into a single thunderstorm mainly affecting areas of west El Paso, the southern Franklin Mountains, as well as central El Paso and about half of east El Paso, west of Cielo vista mall. This was much needed rain!

Our KFOX early warning storm track Doppler estimated we had about a quarter to half an inch of rain in west El Paso, along parts of central El Paso. East El Paso had Doppler estimated rainfall of about a tenth of an inch to a quarter inch, but once east of Cielo Vista mall most areas of far east El Paso stayed dry, with much of far northeast El Paso staying dry as well.

Officially at the airport we only had .04 inches of rain and as little as that is the last time we recorded rainfall at the airport higher than that was August 14th with .32 inches! And for the year, through the start of this month we were more than two inches below normal! Hopefully with moisture in place and disturbances moving through we will see more showers and storms form, giving us more much needed rain later this week.

August to September means summer to fall, what can we expect?

09/01

Fall officially begins by most standards around September 22nd or 23rd, but when does it usually begin to feel like fall here in the borderland? There are several changes that begin to set in leading to the transition of the seasons. For one, during the end of August and beginning of September we are losing about 2 minutes of daylight every day giving us longer nights. This trend only accelerates through fall. These longer nights are one factor that help lead to cooler overnight low temperatures. In fact, in August the average overnight lows are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. By the end of September overnight lows average a more comfortable 59 degrees, open up the windows!

Along with low temperatures, high temperatures trend downward as well as we begin to go from August into September. Along with the shorter daylight hours, we begin to see cool fronts move down from Canada. This takes our average highs in August and early September from the lower 90s, down to the mid 80s by the end of September!

And with monsoon season usually lasting through early October, August and September can be some of the wettest months. This is because cold fronts and storm systems move into the area working on the moisture in place producing showers and storms. And in fact, at times when these storm systems interact with moisture in our area we can see opportunities for severe weather, especially during the months of September and October. In addition, remnants from tropical systems moving into the area add to our rainfall totals as well making these two month some of the wettest on average.

So far this year we have had above average temperatures much of the summer with below average rainfall. So with fall officially coming later this month hopefully we will see more in the way of cooler weather with temperatures closer to our averages and more in the way of rainfall!

Brad's Weather Blog - February 2009

Brad’s Weather Blog - March 2009

Brad’s Weather Blog - April 2009

Brad’s Weather Blog - May 2009

Brad’s Weather Blog - June 2009

Brad’s Weather Blog - July 2009

Brad’s Weather Blog - August 2009

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