AXNT20 KNHC 212352
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 13N55W TO 6N57W AND INLAND ACROSS 
ERN GUYANA TO 2N58W. IT IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. ACCORDING TO THE 
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS OF NOAA BUOYS 41101 AND 41040...THE POSITION 
OF THE WAVE IS NOTED IN THE SHIFT OF WIND DIRECTION. TRENDS IN 
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW 
DETACHED FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FARTHER NORTH...WHICH IS ANALYZED AS A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N51W TO 18N56W. NO ORGANIZED 
DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 6N30W 4N51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 21W-28W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST PALM BEACH THROUGH 
NAPLES FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 25N90W TO 25N95W WHERE 
IS TURNS BRIEFLY WARM FRONTAL AND INTO A 1023 MB LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 26N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 
22N96W IN THE WRN GULF AND INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 
TUXPAN. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
NRN GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 86W-100W AND ACROSS ERN MEXICO AND 
THE FAR WRN GULF FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 95W-101W. 20-25 KT  
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE W AT 80-100 KT WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED N OF WRN 
PANAMA NEAR 10N81W. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDS NE FROM THIS SURFACE LOW TO 16N75W TO THE MONA PASSAGE 
AND INTO THE W ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW 
AND SURFACE FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER 
THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 
9N-16N BETWEEN 75W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE ERN 
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 61W-70W. THESE AREAS OF 
PRECIPITATION ARE SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND 
AMPLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA 
BASIN WITH AXIS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED S OF 17N. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
32N74W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N AND W OF 
72W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N66W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO N OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH 
THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 120/150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1014 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N47W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
PASSING THROUGH IT EXTENDING FROM 24N44W TO 30N49W.  THIS LOW 
AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND BE 
ABSORBED BY THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ANOTHER 
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 23N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO 18N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE 
AREA E OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 21W-31W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N AND W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 31N22W AND EXTENDS TROUGHING N 
OF 5N AND E OF 40W.

$$
HUFFMAN